supply_demand_retest

Admitted 2026-09-21 by owner override — the replay did NOT clear the bar (n=1349, PF 0.83, dd 21%, net -904): admitted on the owner's instruction of 2026-09-21: a live audition on the test account regardless of the replay; the retirement rules decide. Every other rule applies: it retires at 40 closed live trades below PF 1.0 or after 120 days, and the live record decides. The hourly bars are resampled from the IEX 5-minute feed — live and in this replay, so both read one tape — and IEX is a thinner slice of the market than the consolidated tape, so an hourly high or low can miss where the wider market actually traded. Whether a stop or a target was HIT is decided on the consolidated tape instead (N7), because that is what a resting order really fills against; a replay that checked the touch on the thin feed would quietly spare the book every stop-out IEX happened to miss. The book also holds overnight, and a broker's stop and target legs do not execute outside regular hours: it is protected during the session and exposed from 16:00 to 09:30, where a gap fills at the opening print rather than at the level — and a bar that OPENS beyond a level is booked at that open, target first, because that order was already marketable when the bell rang.

Last tick 4:00 pm ET · all systems normal

Subscribe

supply_demand_retest

In testingOwner overridetest account

Admitted 2026-09-21 by owner override — the replay did NOT clear the bar (n=1349, PF 0.83, dd 21%, net -904): admitted on the owner's instruction of 2026-09-21…

Born 2026-09-21 · no funded cell yet · trades the test account · trading live since 2026-09-22

The owner admitted this strategy to the test account although its replay failed the admission bar — a live audition on real fills. The retirement rules are unchanged.

Admission replay, Sep 21, 2026 — did not clear the bar; admitted by owner override. 1349 trades, PF 0.83, max dd 21% of cell, net -904 (2y replay, sip) — did NOT clear the bar (pf(0.83<1.05)); owner override: admitted on the owner's instruction of 2026-09-21: a live audition on the test account regardless of the replay; the retirement rules decide Admitted on 1349 trades, PF 0.83; the replay was re-run on Oct 3, 2026 and the column now reads 1091 trades, PF 0.80. Universe: 103 names, ranked as they stand today and carried across the whole replay.

Admission note

Admitted 2026-09-21 by owner override — the replay did NOT clear the bar (n=1349, PF 0.83, dd 21%, net -904): admitted on the owner's instruction of 2026-09-21: a live audition on the test account regardless of the replay; the retirement rules decide. Every other rule applies: it retires at 40 closed live trades below PF 1.0 or after 120 days, and the live record decides.

The hourly bars are resampled from the IEX 5-minute feed — live and in this replay, so both read one tape — and IEX is a thinner slice of the market than the consolidated tape, so an hourly high or low can miss where the wider market actually traded. Whether a stop or a target was HIT is decided on the consolidated tape instead (N7), because that is what a resting order really fills against; a replay that checked the touch on the thin feed would quietly spare the book every stop-out IEX happened to miss.

The book also holds overnight, and a broker's stop and target legs do not execute outside regular hours: it is protected during the session and exposed from 16:00 to 09:30, where a gap fills at the opening print rather than at the level — and a bar that OPENS beyond a level is booked at that open, target first, because that order was already marketable when the bell rang.

Today

Holding a test short in COIN from $195.71 (+$64) and 2 more.

Booked today
−$17.33
Open, on paper
+$67.16
Signals today
3
SymbolAccountSideQtyIn atMarked atUnrealisedOpened
COINtest accounttest accountshort5$195.71$182.95+$63.8011:30 am
MSTRtest accounttest accountshort3$160.35$159.98+$1.1111:30 am
Ctest accounttest accountlong3$127.78$128.53+$2.2512:30 pm
Download every trade (CSV)

Test strategies trade a real paper account; funded ones trade the funded account. Both are real fills. This strategy trades the test account.

Real-time record

Real orders, real fills, net of costs. Only a funded-account record earns capital.

Net
−$17
Expectancy
−$1.02

per trade

Profit factor
0.77
Win rate
11.8%
Average win
$29.92
Average loss
−$5.15
Sharpe
—

needs 20 trading days

Max drawdown
0.6%

of the strategy's capital

Trades
17
Average hold
0.8 d

Month by month

1 of 2 months in the black.

MonthNet
Oct 2026−$23.19
Sep 2026+$5.81
Cumulative real P&L
Real trades
ClosedSymbolAccountSideQtyInOutP&LWhy it closed
Oct 2, 2026VRTtest accountshort2$248.88$254.45−$11.14stop
Oct 2, 2026COHRtest accountshort1$317.26$323.45−$6.19stop
Oct 1, 2026CVXtest accountlong2$206.13$203.20−$5.86broker closed
Sep 30, 2026XOMtest accountshort3$161.34$162.46−$3.36broker closed
Sep 29, 2026CRWDtest accountshort1$260.20$262.24−$2.04stop
Sep 29, 2026CVXtest accountshort2$206.11$203.01+$6.20take profit
Sep 29, 2026Vtest accountlong1$369.33$365.85−$3.48broker closed
Sep 28, 2026KOtest accountlong5$87.88$87.25−$3.15broker closed
Sep 25, 2026BEtest accountlong3$256.02$273.90+$53.64take profit
Sep 25, 2026CRCLtest accountlong10$93.09$90.49−$26.00broker closed
Sep 23, 2026UPStest accountlong5$96.70$95.71−$4.95stop
Sep 23, 2026GEtest accountlong1$321.53$319.60−$1.93stop
Sep 23, 2026KMBtest accountlong5$97.93$97.66−$1.35stop
Sep 23, 2026TXNtest accountlong1$269.59$267.01−$2.58stop
Sep 23, 2026IWMtest accountlong1$286.67$285.68−$0.99stop
Sep 22, 2026MMMtest accountshort2$167.80$168.45−$1.30stop
Sep 22, 2026VZtest accountlong10$47.10$46.81−$2.90stop
Signals
WhenWhat happenedPriceAccount
Oct 2 1:30 pmSold short MRNA at $187.82sd_short_supply_pin_bar(rr=3.7)$187.82test account
Oct 2 12:30 pmBought C at $127.69sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=2.2)$127.69test account
Oct 2 11:30 amSold short MSTR at $160.39sd_short_supply_pin_bar(rr=3.0)$160.39test account
Oct 1 2:30 pmSold short COHR at $317.37sd_short_supply_engulfer(rr=4.5)$317.37test account
Sep 30 12:30 pmBought CVX at $206.10sd_long_demand_pin_bar(rr=2.1)$206.10test account
Sep 29 1:30 pmSold short XOM at $161.39sd_short_supply_tweezers(rr=3.7)$161.39test account
Sep 29 11:30 amSold short VRT at $248.80sd_short_supply_engulfer(rr=2.4)$248.80test account
Sep 29 10:30 amSold short CRWD at $260.29sd_short_supply_tweezers(rr=2.6)$260.29test account
Sep 28 2:30 pmSold short CVX at $205.94sd_short_supply_tweezers(rr=2.5)$205.94test account
Sep 28 12:30 pmBought V at $369.25sd_long_demand_engulfer(rr=2.3)$369.25test account
Sep 25 11:30 amBought KO at $87.87sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=10.2)$87.87test account
Sep 24 12:30 pmBought CRCL at $93.18sd_long_demand_engulfer(rr=2.9)$93.18test account
Sep 24 11:30 amBought BE at $256.19sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=3.4)$256.19test account
Sep 24 11:30 amSold short COIN at $195.80sd_short_supply_engulfer(rr=3.0)$195.80test account
Sep 23 1:30 pmBought KMB at $97.89sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=10.3)$97.89test account
Sep 23 1:30 pmBought GE at $321.35sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=11.6)$321.35test account
Sep 23 12:30 pmBought UPS at $96.69sd_long_demand_pin_bar(rr=2.1)$96.69test account
Sep 22 1:30 pmBought VZ at $47.10sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=25.2)$47.10test account
Sep 22 1:30 pmSold short MMM at $167.61sd_short_supply_tweezers(rr=2.6)$167.61test account
Sep 22 12:30 pmBought IWM at $286.65sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=11.5)$286.65test account
Sep 22 11:30 amBought TXN at $269.47sd_long_demand_tweezers(rr=4.8)$269.47test account